A more nuanced macro regime
Markets are entering a more complex phase where improving growth signals, moderating inflation, and evolving capital markets dynamics are unfolding simultaneously. While recession risks have eased, the economy remains uneven beneath the surface, and policy is still restrictive. At the same time, a reopening of the IPO window is beginning to reconnect public markets with long-duration growth assets—an important shift after several years where many of the most dynamic companies remained private. For investors, this backdrop reinforces the importance of diversification across both traditional asset classes and emerging sources of return.
The NEI perspective
Canadian growth: resilience after a technical recession. Canada’s economy rebounded with a stronger-thanexpected GDP print, suggesting underlying stability even as prior weakness reflected the impact of restrictive monetary policy working through the system. Bottom line: Growth is stabilizing but remains uneven and highly rate-sensitive.
IPO market reopening: new pathways to growth exposure. Increasing momentum around high-profile listings highlights a broader reopening of the IPO market after a multi-year slowdown. Bottom line: Early signs of reopening are encouraging, but the IPO market remains sensitive to volatility and valuation conditions.
Disinflation: progress, not completion. Inflation continues to moderate across major economies, but persistent services pressures are keeping central banks cautious about declaring victory. Bottom line: The easing cycle is approaching, but the path will likely be gradual and data-dependent.