Aviso Weekly Market Monitor: July 3rd – July 7th

Jul 10, 2023

Market developments

Equities:
U.S. stocks trimmed gains following mixed hiring data this week, the S&P 500 traded off recent highs with lower volume and closed the week down 1.15%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.90%. Investors are analyzing government jobs data that fell short of estimates on Friday, indicating cracks in the labour market but also highlighting wage inflation as a threat. The focus will shift to earnings season next week as we will begin to get Q2 earnings numbers as well as potential outlooks for the second half of the year.

Fixed income:
Treasuries increased globally this week, the mixed performance in the U.S. as the short end of the curve remained relatively flat. The U.S. 2yr closed at 4.94%, while the U.S. 10yr jumped 22bps to 4.06%. U.S. inflation data is set to be released next week and traders are currently leaning towards the expectation of a rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. The Canadian 10yr also jumped this week, increasing 30bps to 3.57%.

Commodities:
Oil prices rose for the second consecutive week as OPEC+ efforts to tighten supplies showed results. Saudi Arabia’s price increases for its crude and an extension of supply cuts contributed to the surge in crude prices this week. Despite the strong week, oil is still down over 5% on the year.

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