Aviso Weekly Market Monitor: February 27th – March 3rd

Mar 6, 2023

Market developments

Equities:
The U.S. market bounced back after a difficult week last week as investors speculate that the Fed won’t raise rates above the peak rates that are currently being priced in. The S&P finished the week up nearly 2% and the Nasdaq around 2.6% even as a jobs report showed continued strength in the labour market as investors believe the impact from the Fed’s tightening cycle takes time to be reflected in the data. Markets in Europe and Asia ended the week higher as well and China recovered some of the losses from last month as positive economic data drove markets higher.

Fixed income:
The U.S.10yr rate finished the week relatively unchanged at 3.96%, as the bond market rallied on Friday. The start of the week saw a selloff in the bond market and led to the whole curve crossing the 4% mark on Thursday. The market is currently pricing in peak rates of ~5.5% and is expected to remain higher for longer.

Commodities:
Oil closed higher on Friday after falling on reports that the U.A.E were discussing leaving OPEC were denied. Following the flat performance last week, Oil closed +4.5% as strong economic data from China outweighed the worries in the U.S that the Fed may need to raise rates above what was previously expected.

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