Aviso Weekly Market Pulse: February 12th – February 16th

Feb 20, 2024

Market developments

Equities:
This week, the S&P 500 experienced a slight decline, closing at 5,005.57, a drop of 0.42%. Despite a run-up to the CPI report, equity markets showed restraint, with the S&P 500 wavering around the 5,000 level amidst mixed signals on inflation and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Investors remained cautious, reflecting on the rally’s sustainability after consecutive weeks of gains and considering potential consolidation.

Fixed income:
The bond market’s movements reflect a nuanced view of interest rate expectations and inflation concerns, with investors weighing the impact of Federal Reserve policy on future rate paths. The slight uptick in the Canadian bond market suggests a cautious optimism towards domestic economic resilience, whereas the decline in the U.S. bond market underscores ongoing adjustments to inflationary expectations and speculation around the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory amidst mixed economic signals.

Commodities:
Crude oil prices saw a notable uptick, closing the week at $79.08 per barrel, marking a 2.9% increase. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, balanced against diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict. Additionally, production cuts from OPEC members and a tight supply scenario contributed to the upward pressure on prices. However, global supply concerns and demand uncertainties, particularly from China, continue to influence market sentiment, keeping oil prices within a constrained range.

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